I'm not an expert on DNA science, and I doubt whether in a few years' time family historians will need to be.
We can expect that over the next few years it is likely that the test itself will become standardised (re the number of
markers used and their selection) and that its price will fall to that of a commodity rather than as a luxury.
At the moment the two major issues for organisers concern the selection of a lab (the markers used in the test
and benefits for groups of testees) and
the privacy issues surrounding the use of DNA samples.
If you read the background materials on cited here you'll have a good grounding
in the issues and practices, and if you want more then the
Genealogy-DNA mailing list archives are a good place
to check what the current concerns are and how people feel about them. Kevin Duerinck's website is a good
single place to check for relevant background information.
As an example, check out his notes about polymorphic changes (mutations)
in the Y-chromosome, particularly the section on the four main types of mutations -- snips, indels, microsatellites
& minisatellites -- that constitute each man's haplotype which is well worth reading.
Organising your study
Several people who've already organised test series have created thoughtful descriptions of the process.
The most comprehensive are by Ron Lindsay and
Kevin Duerink.
Sanford Toole's site has a sign-up form that can
make the process even easier to manage while Kevin Duerinck's has a
sample waiver form.
DNA markers & selecting a lab
Would-be study organisers need to consider which lab they want to work with when setting up a programme of tests.
No standard minimum test for family history purposes has yet been agreed and
different labs use different markers of the Y-chromosome in their testing processes.
The current number of markers used in tests offered to family historians ranges between 10-23,
It is doubtful whether, using current technology, the number of markers will increase significantly.
There are some problems reported with calibrating results between labs for the same markers,
though each lab provides consistent results within each test series.
For a full list of potential markers review
the NIST database and files on each marker.
Finding a match: databases of DNA halotypes
Once you have results you'll need to check several external haplotype databases.
There are three that cover the geographical areas of
North America,
Europe and
Asia run by Drs Lutz Roewer and Sascha Willuweit
of the Institute of Legal Medicine, Humboldt University, Berlin.
These are in their infancy but the numbers of results they contain are growing over time.
Some testing companies offer to link testees to other people who've tested with them that have
the same haplotype, but this be of only limited usefulness until many, many more men have tested.
Software to present Y-chromosome results
The only dedicated software I am aware of is some Windows/DOS s/w for
creating phyllogenetic network charts produced by a German firm called
Fluxus Engineering.
My advice is not to attempt to install it unless you positively enjoy installing
software on your PC as some people have reported that it turned out to be
a bit too complex for them to handle.
The * symbol indicates that this marker is being used by this firm.
The red boxes indicate the markers that can be used when searching the 3 online YSTR haplotype databases
run by the Berlin Lab of Dr Lutz Roewer for Europe, North America & Asia.
The markers above are Y-STR loci with the exception of YAP (a.k.a. DYS 287), SRY 1532, 92R7 and M9 which
are Y-SNP loci.
DYS 385 is also sometimes referred to as DYS 385a & DYS 385b as it has a pair of results. The same appears to be
true for YCAII.
Y-GATA-A4 used to be offered by Ancestry/Relative Genetics, until it was discovered that it is the same
marker as DYS 439. GeneTree is still ofering it as a separate marker.
FamilyTreeDNA offers a basic 12-marker test for US$ 149; the extra 13 markers
can be done later as a US$ 100 upgrade if requested. It also offers clients of Oxford Ancestors a
'conversion test' at US$ 100 for the 12-marker test and US$ 180 for the 25-marker test.
The conversion test for Ancestry clients is US$ 125. These add the additional markers provided by FTDNA to already-known results.
Relative Genetics offers group test rates. It has signed a deal with Ancestry.com as its sole agent for
individual Y-chromosome tests and will refer you to them if you are not organising or participating in a group test.
Ancestry have temporarily discontinued taking orders at the moment (28 Aug 2002). Their list price
was US $219 with a discounted price of US$197.95. Their pricing structure may change when they come online again.
Oxford Ancestors appears to be preparing to add some markers to its offering in 2003.
GeneTree offers a "24-marker test" which includes YCAIIa & YCAIIb whereas the main reference pint,
the YSTR database, refers to it as a single marker. GeneTree also double-counts Y-GATA-A4 and DYS 439.
It is believed that GeneTree, which is owned by the same parent company as Relative Genetics,
no longer handles group tests.
Group prices are thought to be as follows:
FTDNA, for a group of 6 or more users US$ 99 for 12-marker Y, US$ 159 for 25-marker Y and US$ 259 for combined Y & mtDNA tests;
Oxford Ancestors US$ 190 for 6 or more users and US$ 160 for >20 users; Relative Genetics US$ 245 per person (2-4 people), US$ 195
per person (5 or more), US$ 175 per person + US$ 500 group flat fee (for major groups).
There is also a MtDNA database viewable at the Emory University website.
The current rule of thumb for 'false paternity', the generic term used to cover all of the different reasons
for the break in direct father-to-son DNA transmission, is 2-5% per generation
(or once in every 20-50 generations).
We also don't know whether the likelihood of illegitimacy, which one can expect would be the main transmission method
for new DNA into a surname, is a constant over the centuries or between different communities.
There is currently a huge debate over this one topic.
The accepted average rate of naturally occurring Y-chromosome mutation
is around 0.2% per generation, or once in every 500 generations (around 10,000 years).
These averages do, however, mask several potential problems for family historians running DNA test programmes.
Although one haplotype may be found in more testees than another, this doesn't prove it is the
haplotype of the common ancestor of the surname as a whole (the modal haplotype).
Even if the test organiser knows exactly how all the men being tested are related to each other, which one generally does not,
the largest group of living
descendents is not necessarily the oldest group. It is conceivable that the *genuine* oldest ancestor
has only a very few modern-day descendents. The statistics involved in processing all the variables derived
during the tests is pretty fearsome.
Many DNA test sets consist of very small numbers of men. Even a relatively large group like the 51 put together for the
Pomeroy project doesn't escape this problem. The randomness are the samples, and if they are not random
how many assumptions have been built into their selection, has a major influence on the statistical robustness
of the results. One needs a large sample to help minimise the distorting effect of non-paternity events introducing
new DNA to a surname.
Finally, many of the assumptions being used in calculations have yet to be nailed down to a small variation in value.
For example,
Y-chromosome tests generally measure at least 8-12 microsatellite loci each one of which has its own, often as yet unknown,
mutation rate. The 0.2% rate of naturally-occuring mutation mentioned above is an average of these averaged estimates.
Testing more microsatellites might help, but again not enough tests have been done yet to create
locus-specific mutations rates. A recent study using known genealogies or "deep-rooting pedigrees" by Mark Jobling
puts the rate at 1:257 transmissions, but in a sense this is a circular argument and more studies
need to be done per loci to clarify these variables. The most detailed paper on the topic is by Kayser et al
Characteristics and Frequency of Germline Mutations at Microsatellite Loci from the Human Y Chromosome, as Revealed by Direct Observation in Father/Son Pairs
published in The American Society of Human Genetics in February 2000.
It is possible that different microsatellite loci other than the ones
generally used at the moment (which are used because they are relatively easy to test) would yield more accurate results.
Genetic studies are so new that the nomenclature has in many cases yet to be fixed.
There is a site focused on African ancestry linked to
Howard University in Washington D.C., but nothing appears to have changed on it during 2001.
Another site named simply The Seeker appears to claim to be aiming to
build up a global universal DNA database wide enough to help adoptees find their birth parents.
A German site appears to be under construction.